Free advice from experts: H&G would like to give you some good free advice. Yes it’s free, and yes we know that it’s rare these days. But it should go some way to helping you make sense of the noise, and once you have the keys to the door the opportunities to make serious money from this market are endless. Spain: For the past three years, Spain's property market has been going relentlessly backwards, with prices falling for 36 months in a row. But it's now showing the first signs of recovery after many years of pure unadulterated pain. Three years ago our advice would have been- while property prices in Spain are well below their former highs, this is a market only for the brave, foolhardy or risk- hungry! But in 2018 ish the market started to correct itself, and the bear will shortly turn into a bull, and not before time. So is it a good time to find your very own BMV place in the sun? The answer is a resounding, YES. Wow ! Who saw “Covid” coming. And the shit hit the fans ! t’s all over now, and we can all crack on. So it’s now 2023, the markets are starting to move, all be it slowly, but moving. So what’s new. In 2023 and beyond H&G could hand you the keys to success. History, the negatives and the Costa crash: Please remember this, there is nothing to be scared of, as long as you follow the rules all should be well. “Fear does not drive change, but it does perpetuate mediocrity. Fear will only help you make the wrong decisions at the wrong times”. TT. So what do we know for certain, well Spain imploded, we were all effected by the crash, but Spain had a very big crash indeed? However there is always a (silver lining), in property, someone else’s misfortune is always another person’s investment opportunity. Sun seekers on tour: Northern Europeans have been keenly hunting homes across the Spanish mainland and islands since the 1960s. Rich Brits, Germans and Scandinavians bought bargain villas and apartments in order to take advantage of the famed sun, sand and sangria. However, when the global financial crisis hit in 2008, Spain's highly inflated property bubble burst, with a very loud bang. In the worst-hit regions, property prices have more than halved, with prices falling 50% or more. On average, home values have fallen by more than a third (36%) since peaking in April 2007. However, a small glimmer of hope re-appeared in 2023. In January, prices were largely unchanged, according to the latest survey conducted by Spanish property website Fotocasa.es and IESE Business School. As reported on Bloomberg business news, the average prices of a Spanish residence at the end of 2014 was €1,890 (£1,631) a square metre. In December 2015, this figure is roughly just €1 more, so this might just mark the beginning of the end of the Spanish property slump. Even so, the yearly decline in prices for 2014 was nearly a tenth (9.9%) – far worse than anything we've seen here in the UK since 2009. Finding gold: One very big problem for prospective British buyers is that Spain currently has a two-tier property market. There are the prices you see advertised by Estate Agents, and then there are the true prices from sales, which often take place at discounts of up to a further quarter (25%) off 'official' prices. Making some prices 60% BMV (below the market) in 2023. This is the gold; this is where the true market value lies. But be warned, the Bank Repossession / Foreclosure sector, is only freely available to the knowledgeable few. There are far more people purporting to have access to quality BMV than actually have it. Who you know: In this market the old adage of “it’s who you know, not what you know,” which rules supreme. In a market, where the blind are leading the blind, we need a friend, an In. You must have direct access to BMV property, there is no point doing business with a line of brokers / agents, with all of them scraping off your hard earned % points. You need a friendly Bank Manager or two to call on as trusted friends, and H&G have several. This the Key to the BMV business. The Bottom: The bottom is a myth. Waiting for the true market bottom, is pure folly. The true market bottom will not happen; it would end with every Spanish Bank declaring bankruptcy. The bottom will not arrive; it’s not real, the myth is perpetuated by Analysts and Estate Agents. Please remember that this is not a team sport, the guy around the corner is not giving you any of his profits, and you are not giving him any of yours. So market sentiment is not the key today, in property investment it never has been the key really. Once again, IT IS NOT THE KEY TO SUCCESS IN THIS MARKET. LOCATING BMV PROPERTY, LOCATION & TIMING IS THE KEY. Off-Loading: Some Spanish banks have been quietly off-loading repossessed (seized) properties to US Bank at discounts of 60% to 70% from original purchase prices. JP Morgan and others have been secretly purchasing property for several years now, the amount differs but the word on the street is $ 80,000,000 million so far and rising. (Investing when there is blood on the streets is a by-word for the big US Banks). It has not taken much for the rest of the heard to follow JP Morgan’s lead, Spain is on the move once again. But if you do not get it right there will be lots of undiluted financial pain, this is not a threat, it’s a certainty. While the arguments for investing in post-crash Spanish property are now a serious proposition, you still need to do your homework, or allow H&G to do it for you. Rule 1. Do not buy from any old Estate Agent, purporting to have the golden egg, most of them are advertising and selling the same old stuff. They all appear to have the same market up rubbish in their office windows. Nothing changes there then we here you saying, and of course you are right. Fool’s gold: Only a fool would rush in to this bombed-out sector without doing their homework first. If you’re not a seasoned professional, try not to let your emotions run away with you. Better still instruct H&G to do all of the work for you. There is a huge difference between speculation and wise Investments. One leading economic consultancy in Spain, RR. de Acuña & Asociados warned last December that the Spanish property slump could continue for another 8 / 10 years. They expected prices in major cities to fall a further 20% - 30% by the end of 2020 / 2021, while popular coastal regions could see prices halving from their current levels. This was actually, not a very well thought out call and they got it completely wrong. In many places prices are actually on the rise. For the sharp investor this can only be a good thing, the downward trend has abated, you should now be able to take a fantastic market position, and once you have your property/s at well below value, the panic to buy will increase and the rental market will slow slightly. Opportunity favours the brave, most people will want to buy rather than rent once the first green shoots of recovery show themselves. As such you sit on your BMV investment, scrape up some nice rental yields from the tourism sector and wait for the capital appreciation. Remember, we have not waited for the mythical bottom, it does not exist!! We took a market position at the correct time, i.e. NOW and we have staked our claim to 25%, 30% or even 40% return. But we grab one NOW, the true BMV properties are a finite resource and when they are gone, they are gone! By the time you read about it in the Sunday Telegraphs property pages, it will be over. Tears at bedtime: Yes, agreed, this whole scenario has been a disaster for the estimated 300,000 Brits who already live in or own holiday homes in Spain, some of whom have seen their homes fall in value by three-quarters (75%) from peak to trough. And we empathise with every single one of you, but we are investors and emotions cannot get in the way. Beware of misleading market reports: In a strongly worded report RR. de Acuña & Asociados warned that; "The [Spanish property] market is broken," because there are close to two million properties awaiting sale. This unsold stock breaks down as follows: Used homes on the market 800,000 Completed development units 700,000 Foreclosures 300,000 In foreclosure proceedings 150,000 Under construction 250,000 Total 2.2 million The following information is misleading for number of reasons. You would assume at first instance of course, that classical economic theory tells us that when supply greatly exceeds demand, prices can go only one way: downwards. As such with a massive glut of 2.2 million unsold homes and only 200,000 to 250,000 properties changing hands each year, Spain has a property overhang that could take a decade to clear. In our view this is wrong on a number of levels the data does not offer us the following facts. And if you are going to write reports you should include all of the relevant information. 1. How many properties are in a fit and proper state to be a turnkey purchase / investment? 2. How many properties have the correct habitation licences, planning and have been prepared for sale. 3. How many properties have no habitation licence at all, and thus should not be legally sold to any person. 4. Bank foreclosures do not enter the market in the usual way, as such they are not offered to the general public, usually. 5. How many foreclosures are currently in the Courts or being fought by the owners? In the original report the scenario demonstrated that there is simply no way that the Spanish market can gain any upwards momentum. But this is not the case, some property in Marbella and the Balearics are up a massive 12% on last year. What's far more likely is that prices will start levelling off very soon, and now that the geo-political crises nears its end, they will start the upward trend. The true picture, Spain in numbers: We have pulled together some stats on the state of Spain v the UK. As you can see from my table below, there are plenty of problems for property investors to worry about in both countries, but let’s not manufacture a crisis where none exists. Life is too short to start chasing unicorns, let’s try and keep it calm and sensible. Country Spain UK Population 48 million 62 million Yearly property sales 200,000 900,000 Unemployment rate 28.6% 7.8% Youth unemployment rate 36.5% 20.2% Economic growth (2012) -1.8% 0% Predicted growth (2013) -1.3% 0.7% As you can see, the UK economy was flat in 2012, grew slightly in 2013 and was expected to grow again in 2014. This figures indicate that we may need an interest rate correction this year 2015, but guess what, we didn’t get one. Americas got one, where is our correction Mr Bank of England. Of course Mr Sunak needs to perpetuate the myth of everything in the UK being ok for a little longer. Its election time. The Eton Old Boys Club cabinet, doesn’t want blood on its hands as all the Help to Buyers look for balconies to jump from either, because when we have 5 . 5 % interest rates looming and maybe going to 6 % / 7% we will have jumpers as sure as eggs is eggs. If you needed help at ▪ 5 you’re going to need serious help when we hit 6 %. In order to keep inflation in check, we will get a proper rate rise, fact! Maybe 8 %. “Inflation is a decline in money’s purchasing power. Inflation’s most visible consequence is steadily rising prices of all or most goods and services in the economy. For a unit of money (say, a dollar) to lose purchasing power is for that unit of money to lose value. And when a unit of money loses value, it takes more units of that money to buy goods and services. In other words, the prices of goods and services bought with that money rise”. TT. Now if the interest rate hits 5.5 % – 6 % by the end of 2023 as mentioned in a previous paragraph, not only will all of those Government “Help to Buy” people be heading for a balcony somewhere, but the Bond Market will also become volatile / crash. Money will move out of Bonds and look for a new home somewhere else. It’s an excellent opportunity to forward sell a BMV property or two. Recession: From an analysts point of view, although Spain is no longer firmly in recession today, but its economy is expected to keep shrinking until the end of 2023, beginning of 2024 at least. With unemployment in Spain running at more than three times the UK's rate of 7.8% and youth unemployment at record high, there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for Spain just yet from the ‘Macro’ recovery point of view. But we are not interested in the Macroeconomic view point, from a property investment point of view point, please tell me where you can buy a 5 bedroom Villa which rents for € 2,000 a week, for as little as 300k. This is 45% BMV on the Costa del Sol and we have several on our books. In our opinion Spain is still pound for pound the best opportunity to make a serious ROI by far. Spain is the place to be right NOW, in our humble view. Yes London is great, in-fact if you’re a ‘Indian’ billionaire it is truly a paradise Mrs Sunak. Hands up who can afford West London ? London is saturated with foreign buyers pushing up artificially inflated prices, Londoners suffer, nurses can’t find accommodation and students are 10 to a house. On the surface it’s great, but only for the very privileged few. Oh, and London has a mini bubble looming of her own making in our view. Watch London Go Bang as ‘Ulez’ creates havoc ! But we are not all privileged, what we want is a fair playing field and a chance to make a few quid. So with Spain's 'zombie' banks and property developers locked in a 'death spiral' of fire sales, write-downs, bad debts and defaults, there is no reason not to sneak in under the radar and snag yourself a bargain, NOW. Today ! Accept the real positives: “There is nothing to fear. You get recessions, you have market declines. This is the true nature of property, the property market suffers from huge bubbles, accept this and you will do well in the markets”. TT. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in any of the markets. You must be opportunistic, work out what creates value. Where the bottom is, what creates incremental value and in what combinations. And once you have worked it out you need to invest at the right time. It’s not rocket science! Lofty. If you’re struggling, simply pick up the phone and give H&G a call, we will point you in the right direction with pleasure. Join our BMV Investment Club: H&G have access to some of the best investments currently available in Spain and her associated islands. We believe that there has never been a better time to invest in Spanish property, but the time for the wise investor to enter the market place as we keep stating is right now! H&Gs property portfolio is unique and offers a wide selection of BMV investment opportunities. We are able to offer everything from 1 bedroom flats right through to 400 bed hotels. Personally we are not keen on part builds, (we favour instant rental returns) but if you want them we can locate the best ones for you. We love fully built, fully furnished, turnkey investment opportunities, this is our expert field. We have BMV property which starts as low as €50.000, perfect for a first time investor, rising to multi million euro investments for the more experienced person. In conclusion, H&G offers a “near perfect” investment opportunity to all of our BMV Investment Club Members. With our help, you could buy today at a massive discount, enjoy an immediate rental income and we will happily help you re-sell your property when the market correction comes. The market will correct its self, as sure as “eggs are eggs”. Timing is of the upmost importance, unless you enjoy losing money, you do not enter at the top of a market. The time to invest in Spain is now, procrastinate at your peril ! H&G will help you to unlock the code to BMV property investment, this is a fact. In order to get into this rising market, before it’s all over, you simply need to pick up the phone, email or pop into our head office. Do yourself a real favour, be part of our growing BMV Investment Club in 2023. Back to Articles